NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (2024)

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (1)

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.

NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (2)

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms— such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago— remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”

Additionally, NOAA has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:

  • To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab will operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season and coordinate for the first time with uncrewed ocean gliders, small aircraft drone systems, and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to measure the ocean, atmosphere and areas where they meet.
  • The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, which have shown significant skill improvements in terms of storm track and intensity forecasts, have been successfully transitioned to the newest version of the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System, allowing for uninterrupted operational forecasts.
  • The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time, giving more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. The ERO forecasts and maps the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
  • In June, NOAA will enhance an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast when storm surge watches or warnings are in effect. Upgrades include an updated disclaimer and color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast. This tool is currently only available in the Atlantic basin.

“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting and for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA has also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (2024)


NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season? ›

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Summary

Does NOAA still expect above-normal Atlantic hurricane season? ›

NOAA's outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

What is the hurricane season prediction for 2022? ›

On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended-range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units.

How accurate are NOAA hurricane predictions? ›

NEW ORLEANS — NOAA is forecasting a season of record-breaking activity, predicting with 70% confidence, 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes.

What is the NOAA prediction for a hurricane in 2024? ›

NOAA expects above-normal hurricane activity this season, with 17 to 25 named storms including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 miles an hour or more.

Are we at the peak of hurricane season? ›

The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.

How often does NOAA update hurricane forecast? ›

Whenever a tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) or a subtropical storm has formed in the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT.

How far in advance can hurricanes be predicted? ›

Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. A hurricane's possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases. To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models.

Are there any hurricanes forming right now? ›

There are currently no active storms in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.

Are there any hurricanes forming in the Atlantic? ›

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

Who has the most accurate hurricane predictions? ›

Here is a list of some of the top hurricane forecast models used by NHC:
  • Euro: The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) global forecast model.
  • GFS: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Forecast System model.
  • UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model.
Jun 30, 2023

Which is more accurate NOAA or weather Channel? ›

According to Nate Silver, who did the math in his book Signal To Noise, both The Weather Channel and the National Weather Service are pretty accurate. However, remember that The Weather Channel is set up TO MAKE MONEY. So they do things to make you feel more positively towards them.

Is NOAA more accurate than the Farmers Almanac? ›

While NOAA releases seasonal outlooks much closer to the time frame they're predicting (such as releasing the winter outlook in mid-October), the forecasts are still subject to changes for accuracy, while the almanacs are set in stone once they're published.

Will a hurricane hit Florida in 2024? ›

Experts are predicting this season could bring:

Between 17 and 25 named storms (storms with winds of at least 39 mph). Between 8 and 13 of these will be hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 79 mph). Between 4 and 7 of these will be major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5 storms).

What is the hypothetical hurricane season in 2025? ›

On April 4, 2025, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Has predicted we will have an active hurricane season? ›

NOAA predicts very active hurricane season for 2024, issues highest-ever early season outlook. La Niña and near record warm ocean temperatures will increase storm activity.

What does NOAA consider a major hurricane? ›

Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

How many hurricanes are expected in 2024? ›

Pre-season forecasts

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Are there anymore hurricanes forming in the Atlantic? ›

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time.

Is hurricane season getting worse? ›

The last year with as many storms was 2020, which tied with 2005 as the worst hurricane season on record. In other words, 2024 is set up to potentially become either the second-worst or worst hurricane season on record. In fact, this is the highest-ever hurricane prediction that CSU has ever issued.

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